The Man With A Plan

(l-r) Senator Sir Philip Balhache and Chief Minister Gorst

Former Bailiff, now Senator Sir Philip Bailhache campaigned on the issue of constitutional reform. Now that Jersey’s Government has been formed he must be ever more resolute in his ambition to modernise, and democratise, the States.

Despite topping the island-wide poll with a total number of votes not seen since the time of the late Vernon Tomes, Senator Bailhache subsequently lost the election for Chief Minister to Ian Gorst, the man who had finished in second place in the recent election.

Let me be clear on one thing – I wish the new Chief Minister the absolute best of luck and think he is an excellent choice for the job. But for perhaps the first time I can see that my old schoolfriend Deputy Montfort Tadier may have a point about the democratic deficit in Jersey.

True, in a representative democracy we delegate our vote to a representative (in the British tradition) and thus there is nothing strictly awry here. However, there does seem something at least note-worthy about the second-placed Senator becoming Chief Minister ahead of the man who more islanders voted for.

I am sure some readers will quickly point out that the election that Sir Philip won was not for Chief Minister. That is true, however, it is counter to the Westminster model (and indeed that of many other parliaments) which seem to have more faith in the public to choose their leader.

It will be interesting to see how the new assembly tackle constitutional reform and whether the issue of the democratic deficit is addressed.

With all this talk of taxation in the air recently it is important that we consider how to structure our economy to reduce the impact upon islanders. That is, we must welcome more visitors.

The States Business Plan reports that the Treasury Minister hopes to raise £22m extra in tax in 2011, £48m extra in 2012 and £56m extra in 2013. Those are staggering sums. How he will do that is the subject of the latest Fiscal Strategy Review being undertaken at present.

One of the changes to taxation which seems likely (inevitable?) is an increase in the Goods & Services Tax (GST). If that is to be the case then we must re-focus on the importance of Jersey’s visitor economy.

GST is the only tax we have which captures revenues from visitors. If we increase the number of visitors,that  increases the tax take and thereby reduces the amount required from elsewhere (public sector cuts and other forms of tax income).

To achieve an increase in the visitor economy we certainly need a clear strategy for tourism. The last Jersey Tourism strategy was published in 2004. Whilst we certainly have tourism mentioned in the Strategic Plan, and an annual marketing plan, the lack of a published strategy creates a number of challenges:

• Entrepreneurs will find it difficult to make investment decisions - you are unlikely to do up a three star hotel, for instance, without some confidence that there is a strategy in place to attract three star tourists. Whilst Jersey has attracted investment in four (and now five!) star hotels, its notable that they seem to be ‘trading down’ on the price of rooms as we are not attracting enough visitors willing to pay book prices. 
• Government activity cannot be aligned to strategy - had our tourism strategy said that Jersey Tourism planned to increase the number of families visiting Jersey, then perhaps the public and politicians could have brought more pressure to bear on the Planning Department to approve the Center Parcs proposal a few years back. Instead, Planning delays, and a lukewarm reception from the public, caused the company to effectively lose interest. Center Parcs had a marketing database of 1m people – what a difference that might have made to visitor figures.
• The community will not align behind tourism - In my opinion we the public can make a massive difference to tourism, and we will, if told what to do. So, for example if government strategy is to increase sport tourism then perhaps local clubs and associations will organise even more trips to the island for visiting teams, knowing that they are doing their part not just for their sport, but also for their island.

These observations are not meant as a brick bat for government. I think there is a role for both government and the industry in setting the strategy, funding it and implementing it. But getting that strategy is, in my opinion, vital.

Bring a friend

One final thought. In the tourism annual marketing plan there is a reference to increasing the number of people visiting friends & relatives (VFR).

In May 2010 we are 12,139 visitors in total, 3.2% down on last year. 

In 2009 101,000 visitors were classified as VFR. So, we would only need a 12% increase in that figure in order to bring tourism visitor figures back to balance (last year the VFR market increased by 5.8%) .

Put another way, at the time of the last census (2001) there were 35,562 households in Jersey. That will have increased since 2001, but using it as a rough and ready figure, if each of those households had invited just one additional visitor to Jersey in the first half of this year (over and above already planned visitors) then tourism visitor numbers would have increased by 28%!

Can we help tourism? Yes. We. Can.

Sources

Draft 2011 Business Plan – http://www.gov.je/news/Pages/BusinessPlanLodged072010.aspx

Jersey Tourism arrivals May 2010 -     http://www.jersey.com/business/marketing/MonthlyData/Pages/2010.aspx

Jersey Tourism Annual Report 2009 -      http://www.jersey.com/business/marketing/Pages/AnnualReports.aspx

Jersey 2001 Census – http://www.gov.je/Government/JerseyWorld/StatisticsUnit/Population/Pages/Census.aspx

Deputy Southern’s vote of no confidence in the Chief Minister was defeated by 31 votes to nine in the States last week. It was a vote of no confidence all right, but in the proposer of the motion, not the Chief Minister.

A new leader for the Voice in the Wilderness party?

It is easy to see what the Deputy hoped to gain from the motion – headlines during a hard-fought election campaign. However, I think the motion was a tactical mistake.

The Motion of No Confidence is meant as the nuclear option for a parliament, to be used only when the executive is ignoring calls to get rid of a Minister. Having been defeated, Deputy Southern will find even less support should he choose the same route again.

No doubt in the Deputy’s mind this was simply round one in his campaign to fight against planned cuts in public services – an opportunity to air grievances and to hone arguments which the public and politicians will hear again and again in months to come. Yet he must be careful. Look at the photo which the Jersey Evening Post has now printed twice. Deputy Southern is in danger of being pigeonholed as a malcontent and a loser – doomed to sit on the same benches as politicians like Bob Hill and Rob Duhamel in the ‘voice in the wilderness party’.

Geoff Southern is a good politician and will no doubt bounce back. But I think he needs to choose his political weapons carefully in future, lest they explode in his face.

Today, June 26th 2010, the US Supreme Court restricted the rights of cities to control guns when it ruled that Chicago’s ban on handgun ownership was unconstitutional [see details]. The victory follows a weekend in which   29 people in Chicago were shot, three of them fatally, according to local media.

Thankfully in Jersey we have never had a fatal criminal shooting to my knowledge, although a few weeks ago  Jim Rigby, a former Centenier, raised his concerns about the island’s gun laws in the wake of the Cumbria shootings. He has said that Jersey could be “another Dunblane.”

Guns in cupboards

Mr Rigby said that during four years as a gun officer in St Saviour he came across people storing firearms in unlocked cupboards. He wants gun owners subject to supervisory visits by the States police.

In 2003 Derren Brown conducted a ‘Russian Roulette’ illusion in Jersey because UK gun laws would not allow him to use a handgun.

Should we change the law?

Home Afffairs Minister Ian le Marquand says Jersey’s gun laws are tougher than the UK’s, which in turn are tougher than most other countries. For example, unlike the UK Jersey requires a licence for air guns.

In Jersey people apply not only for weapons, but also for ammunition. They have to keep the two separately in a locked cupboard at home.

In any discussion of gun control in Jersey we must recognise that the island has a strong sport shooting fraternity and for that reason alone stronger laws will be controversial.

That said, there are reports that some private collectors in Jersey hold large stores of guns and ammunition.

Whilst we have strong gun laws, it is notable that in Guernsey guns can only be held at gun clubs, not at home.

Furthermore, islanders are only required to get a gun licence every five years. It costs £25. This does not cover the cost of administering the law. Also, you can get as many weapons as you like once you have a gun licence.

User pays

I do not advocate diminishing the sport of shooting, nor stopping genuine collectors or those who hunt.

However, there are two issues worth examining. Firstly current gun licensing does not cover the cost of administering the law. Creating an annual licence will create more opportunity to monitor gun ownership and increase government revenue in line with user pays principles.

Secondly, in some cases we must legislate not for the sensible majority, but for the minority of people who might misuse weapons in their possession. I support a Scrutiny review of gun laws for these reasons. If it finds our gun laws are sufficient, then fine. But complacency in such life and death matters is not acceptable.

Crabbe pistol range

My mum summed up the election - the entire election, the entire three week, 12 husting, 15,000 doors, countless handshakes, soaring highs and bitter lows election – like this: “That nice man Mr le Gresley beat that nasty man Mr Syvret.”

And, nuance notwithstanding, in many ways she was right.

From the start Francis was characterised, most notably by the JEP, as the nice guy in the election. There were of course many nice candidates in this election, but it is hard to meet Francis and not feel that the JEP’s moniker is well earned. He was in my experience, from start to finish, courteous, pleasant and personable.

But I’ve said already in this blog that the Senator-elect is done a disservice by the suggestion that he was voted in simply because of name recognition. I believe that this island often rewards ‘time-served’ and Francis le Gresley’s summing up at the Town Hall was very apt in referring to his 18 years at the Citizen’s Advice Bureau – having left a lucrative career in banking – as being deserving of a promotion to the Big House. And clearly the voters agreed. 

As for Patrick – the candidate I’ve supported from start to finish – he was disappointed last night despite an excellent show in which he was the only candidate to beat Francis le Gresley in a Parish all evening (St John). In his speech to supporters he said that elections are difficult things. That when you win you are on cloud nine, and when you lose it is the worst feeling in the world. But he is a strong character and will I hope be back because there is still a lot he can offer the island.

Whatever personal disappointment Patrick feels must not compare to Geoff Southern’s emotions in the wake of a thrashing island-wide. Interviewed on BBC Radio Jersey this morning he vowed to fight on. “There are 6,000 public sector workers still in fear for their jobs today,” he said.

“If they are so worried, why didn’t they vote for you?” asked Chris Stone. “If they had, you’d have won.” Kick a guy when he’s down why don’t you…

There is already debate over whether Jersey should introduce a deposit for elections to dissuade some people from standing. This is in reference to Peter Remon-Worral, Gino Risoli and Philip Maguire who all polled fewer votes than there were spoilt papers.

I do think there is an argument for dissuading candidates who stand as a joke, or to get air time for the single issue they care about. However, we must not put people off standing for election either. The fact is those candidates would have gained more votes if 70% of the electorate hadn’t stayed at home.

The low turnout was an elephant in the room and it angers me to hear of the many people who live in this community but do not vote. To vote, in my opinion, is a right and a duty. It would be an even better island if all residents took time to engage in politics, even if only at election time. Deputy Southern has every right to feel angry that he works incredibly hard to help States workers only to have them stay at home on election day.

And what of ex-Senator Stuart? It is too simple to characterise him as the ‘nasty’ candidate. He has been nasty at times, and ill-judged in the way he fights issues. However, it is still a sad end to a 20 year political career in which he has provided a valuable voice in opposition, most notably in the case of the Limited Liabilities Law, when he should not have been suspended from the House for highlighting a huge conflict of interest by the then Chairman of Policy & Resources. At one time Jersey politics needed Stuart Syvret, and his success in elections reflected that. Throughout this election it has sounded like he’s had enough, and electors have seemingly agreed. Like many marriages, this relationship has ended in an acrimonious divorce.

And so, all that is left to say is, “Stuart Syvret you have been evicted from the Big House. Please do not swear.”

Here are a quick snapshot of the results of the 2010 Senatorial by-election. Analysis to follow.

“It has been an entertaining in some respects [this evening]. It has been testing in others,” said Constable Mezbourian summing up. And when the effervescent Constable Mezbourian looks drained you know it has indeed been testing.

It was a miserable evening outside the St Lawrence Parish hall, the cold driving rain contrasting with the sun and relative heat of Helsinki where I’ve been the past few days. Nevertheless, it takes more than rain to stop the Parishioners of St Lawrence who must have decided that in a choice between watching Big Brother and hearing political speeches about Big Brother, that the latter might be more entertaining.

One of the unofficial contests in an election is for best Parish Hustings. For this the aforementioned Constable pulled out all the stops. Here’s how I think she scored. Points for having a table set up with tea and biscuits for the whole audience (St Peter put on food too, but in a private anteroom known only to the initiated); points too for controlling the meeting - Gino Risoli was told to sit down about five times as he over-ran his allotted time; points lost for overrunning on the meeting time and allowing an extra question, which was asked by Deputy Tadier, who has enough opportunity to put forward his views without a Parish hustings.

For the candidates themselves this war of attrition is almost over. Some have quite obviously almost given up. For others, the finish line is close, but as they run towards it, they know that others are right on their shoulder, each capable of a final sprint.

Philip Maguire was first to speak and in case anyone didn’t read it in the JEP repeated his quote from the St Clement Hustings that he’s already told supporters he has no chance of getting elected. He’s honest, I’ll give him that.

His talk pointed to the twin pillars of influence which have overshadowed Jersey elections for many years. Firstly his concession quote has been published in the JEP, which is read by around 85% of the local population, and perhaps 100% of the voters. They more or less declared at the beginning of this campaign that they think Francis le Gresley will win because he is nice (Mr le Gresley has many merits as a candidate, being nice is one of them, but it is a backhanded compliment for the JEP to suggest that if he is elected it will merely be because islanders vote for name recognition).

Secondly, Philip highlighted that Honest Nev the bookie has given him odds of 14/1 to win the election. The odds aren’t bad, but he ain’t a thoroughbred. Honest Nev is a Jersey legend whose election odds are studiously checked by the candidates in every local election. In times past I have seen otherwise sane candidates look forlorn at bad odds, unwilling to believe that a bookmaker’s art, in this instance at least, has as much scientific rigour as the Daily Mirror horoscope.  But since lots of people read the Daily Mirror readers of this blog will probably want to know that the three favourites are apparently Patrick Ryan (5-2), Francis le Gresley (7-4) and Stuart Syvret (2-1). If anyone knows the full list of odds, please write a comment as I cannot find them on the web.

Another candidate who has given up is Nick le Cornu who has stopped talking about winning and is instead using the time productively to promote Time 4 Change’s next protest on 19 June. “Whatever your grievance, no matter how small, come and show this government what you think of them,” he said. Or, in other words, ”Freedom for Tooting”.

Peter Remon-Worral meanwhile spent his opening speech promoting the merits of Messers Le Cornu, Southern, le Gresley and Syvret. Perhaps his candidacy is a plot by the ‘progressives’ to get extra time to talk about their policies? Anyway he was shamelessly heckled by a Parishioner who felt that he was wasting her time by being there. He is wasting no-ones time and has every right to stand in this election. He is, as Nick le Cornu quite rightfully said, “the voice of the real Jerseyman in hard times.” Peter is a simple gardener, a political research student, and may not have all the answers, but he does have legitimate questions. Like why does States outsourcing mean he loses a job? Why are dentistry fees too high for some islanders to afford? Why will some States tenants have no chance to ever buy their homes? Tonight he published his manifesto finally, a simple, handwritten black and white page of A4 with a list of 12 things he’d like and is signature at the end. We ignore voices like his at our peril.

Gino Risoli might have given up, but it’s quite hard to understand what he’s talking about at the best of times. “The reason I am here…” he said in summing up, then paused and scratched his head. Finally, a moment of introspection from the great man. Vote Risoli on 16th June if you want honesty and transparency. It’s that simple people. If we don’t, then we’re idiots. Right? Get it? Vote for Gino and, “our society will crumble like communism did. But not in a bad way.” Alrighty then…

Ex-Senator Syvret has definitely not given up. Why would he? He is after all Honest Nev’s favourite. “No other States member would have forced this election,” he said again tonight. Well it has cost £30,000 of public money, plus the £22,000 he took in salary whilst in London, so let’s hope the public appreciate the opportunity to have their say on Jersey’s culture of conspiracy. Maybe they would have preferred schoolchildren being able to visit Durrell this year (£33,000), the loss of which is another nail in the coffin of one of our prime tourist attractions.

Deputy Southern, the self-proclaimed “busy bee” will also never give up. Tonight he set out why Jersey is, relative to other jurisdictions, not in dire straights. Jersey’s deficit represents 1.6% of GDP. The UK deficit is equivalent to 12% of GDP, in the US it is 9% and in Japan it is 6%. Net government expenditure in Jersey represents 17% of GDP. In Guernsey it is 22% and in the Isle of Man it is 33%. This, he argued, is evidence that we should stop the efficiency cuts. Humbly, I suggest he is wrong and that the economies he cites all simply have bigger problems than us, but all recognise that they must shrink public spending back in line with tax receipts. Besides, Deputy Southern already has a job, good as he is at it, he does not need a fresh mandate in order to force yet another bi-election.

Deputy Southern’s view of the world is diametrically opposed to Gerard Baudains who suggests we will be bankrupt in five years. He got a big clap tonight for his savage cuts agenda. I’m not sure at the end of the day though it will transfer into votes.

Another to get a big clap was that nice Mr le Gresley. And why not, he is a good candidate with (mostly) sensible policies. Perhaps also the crowd wanted to cheer him up after he was forced to deny rumours perpetrated, he said, by Stuart Syvret’s supporters (who them? never). Firstly, he is not a mason (does that line really work in this day and age? They’ll be accusing him of being a Jehova’s Witness next). Secondly, his job at the Citizens Advice Bureau is not at threat and he will retire (unless elected) in June 2011. Every candidate will be subject to gossip from other candidates and their supporters. That’s politics, and that’s life. It’s a shame to see it getting to Francis, who will need thicker skin when, sooner or later, he enters the Big House. 

And finally to Patrick Ryan (who, just for the record, I’m supporting). He used his opening remarks to bemoan the difficulty in staying positive during an election when one candidate is suggesting that our island is a den of iniquity. Patrick is a genuinely proud Jerseyman, positive about our island. “Do not let us be a laughing stock again,” he concluded in a plea to voters to “listen to your head as well as your heart.” A vote for patrick is a vote for fiscal stability, protection of the vulnerable, support for teachers, doctors and nurses and the creation of new jobs. You heard it here first.

There were some good questions tonight. 

Jason Cronin, a parishioner and Branch Secretary of the Jersey Nursing Association asked what candidates thought about proposed strikes and how they might deal with the issues differently.

Several of the candidates, led by Patrick Ryan, highlighted that the teachers strike is less about pay than about conditions.

Deputy Southern though pointed out that a maths teacher in the audience last night had calculated that his salary had been reduced in real terms by 20% in ten years (which if true is a scandal). Stuart Syvret said that people in Jersey expect a high level of education and healthcare which means we must remunerate effectively.

Jenny Cartwright from Bel Royal then asked candidates views on diabetes sufferers being singled out to pay for their medicine as part of the first round of efficiency savings.

Predictably candidates decried cuts in the Health budget. “Even Mrs Thatcher didn’t go to these extremes,” said Peter-Remon-Worral reading his notes. “This is what we might expect from a group of accountants who cannot balance the books.” Where had I heard that before? “He seems to have been writing down my speeches,” said Stuart Syvret. Ah yes, that was it. The progressive wing of this election is turning into a love in.

Dick Mahy asked how candidates see Jersey developing in the next five years when diversification from the finance industry will be vital.

Candidates agreed that diversification is essential with several suggesting ideas for new industries including Stuart Syvret (an international arts festival), Nick le Cornu & Gerard Baudains (tourism generally), Francis ke Gresley (open up the Tourism Development Fund to private companies), Patrick Ryan (use the stabilisation fund to support tourism and increase Economic Development Grants by five times) and Philip Maguire (create a sovereign wealth fund).

Vanessa Nash asked if a financial ombudsman is really necessary.

All agreed that it is necessary, with Francis le Gresley pointing out that he sat on a working party to draft legislation for the ombudsman scheme 12 years ago. Geoff Southern suggested that the scheme should be funded by the financial services industry. Patrick Ryan, who used to have political responsibility for the Jersey Financial Services Commission, said that he feels that the best way to pay will be through the bank licensing system.

Nick, another parishioner, asked whether the Bailiff should be President of the House

This split candidates with most arguing that he shouldn’t. Interestingly Patrick Ryan and Gerard Baudains (ex-politicians both) argued that he should stay in the House, with Mr Baudains saying that a speaker elected from politicians would effectively disenfranchise that person’s supporters. Mr Syvret agreed that an elected speaker should not be a politician, but argued that Jersey needs a judiciary which is seen to be independent from political control and that the job of chairing the House could be done by anyone, and indeed is ably done by the States Greffier on many occasions already.

Paul Marr then asked who among the candidates might make the best Minister for Children. I’m sure Mr Marr was also a resident of St Brelade, but maybe he moved mid-election…

Francis le Gresley was quick to understand the question and acknowledge that of course Mr Syvret is the candidate with the best credentials for the role. There would though, he pointed out, be two problems with Mr Syvret being Children’s Minister. Firstly, he said, no senior civil servant will want to work with him and secondly he won’t be an elected politician. That got a good laugh. So did Mr Syvret’s response when he pointed out that working with senior civil servants won’t be a problem as job one for him as Children’s Minister would be to sack the lot of them.

Other speakers questioned whether we need a Children’s Minister. Patrick Ryan argued that the so-called ’corporate parent’ role of Home Affairs, Education and Health & Social Services means that children’s care gets the attention of three departments rather than a single person. That doesn’t work in practice, pointed out Deputy Southern, and it doesn’t work because the ministers from those departments – who included Mr Syvret at one point – rarely met. He said that the independent insight from the newly formed Jersey Child Protection Committee and regular checks by the Scottish  executive are improving matters.

Graham Roberts continued the theme asking whether candidates support the creation of a sex offenders register (they do) and whether they would publicly publish the names and addresses of those on it (they wouldn’t).

Finally, as we passed the nine thirty projected finish, Deputy Tadier felt compelled to ask the views of candidates on 11k residents.

This again split the candidates with Geoff Southern leading the charge for these residents to pay ’progressive’ taxation(which means high for the sake of clarity). He was supported by Stuart Syvret, Peter Remon-Worral and Philip Maguire. Patrick Ryan put the counter-argument that 11ks can live anywhere in the world and so we must compete on tax deals because they support local charities and businesses. Francis le Gresley and Gerard Baudains agreed, but said that they should be subject to more regular reviews of their tax affairs.

Tonight was a largely well-mannered affair between candidates, but not as much with the audience. At the end we were treated to a bizarre exchange when a member of the audience questioned whether one of the questions was planted to benefit a specific candidate. That audience member was then attacked by Nick le Cornu who suggested he is a trouble maker and supports sex offenders. Even for Mr le Cornu that seemed a bit strong. He can hardly be surprised that the incandescent man tried to defend himself whilst the Constable tried to restore order.

Exchanges like that are unseemly, but at least they make things interesting. I’ve said it before and will do so again – best free entertainment in the island. Tell your friends.